Editorial of September 2025

Brief notes on the State of the Union (SOTEU) annual address of 10 September 2025

Pedro Madeira Froufe [Editor of this blog and Coordinator of the Group “Studies in European Union Law” (CEDU), of JUSGOV – Research Centre for Justice and Governance, University of Minho)]

On the same day that the President of the Commission delivered her 2025 State of the Union address[1] to the European Parliament, [2] Polish airspace was violated by a group of Russian drones. One of the concerns raised by President von der Leyen was therefore the urgent need to rethink and strengthen the common security and defence policy. In other words, on the very day that the State of the Union address was delivered in the European Parliament, Putin helped to corroborate one of the priorities set out in President von der Leyen’s speech! Moreover, these were the opening words of the speech, in a diagnosis that the President herself described as bleak: “Europe is in a fight. A fight for a continent that is whole and at peace. For a free and independent Europe. A fight for our values and our democracies. A fight for our liberty and our ability to determine our destiny for ourselves. Make no mistake – this is a fight for our future.”

It was inevitable that the 2025 State of the Union address would focus on the war as the pressing issue facing Europe today. This war, unleashed by the Russian Federation, is an existential question for the maintenance of European political identity. Since February 2022, the European Union (EU) has been experiencing times of disillusionment, unrest and confrontation with a reality it thought no longer existed. A war for territorial conquest (expansionist), openly challenging one of the basic principles of current international law: the inviolability and stability of national territorial borders. Furthermore, underlying this war on Russia’s part is an understanding of its space and its existence as a great power (which it undoubtedly will be) sustained by the power of force. Military force, territorial force, force to impose (rather than to build or engage with) its vision of society on the peoples of its territories. Consequently, it seems to be guided by an understanding of international order based on the strength of powers and built on the exclusive interests of those powers (among which it includes itself). In other words, a vision and understanding that is still tsarist.

In a way, historically, it resembles the vision of European order that motivated the Congress of Vienna of 1814–1815 and led to the geopolitical reorganisation of Europe after the end of the Napoleonic era, known as the “Concert of Europe”. This post-Napoleonic reorganisation was ultimately designed by the European powers that had won the wars against Napoleon Bonaparte (initially Austria, Russia, Prussia and the United Kingdom), inevitably reflecting their respective interests. In other words, it was an order that sought to prevent further wars, established on the basis of the interests of those (also) military powers. It should be noted that this ‘concert’ of those great nations was always guided by the common desire to restore the absolutist order of the “Ancien Régime”, thus maintaining absolutism as the dominant philosophy of the states and the European political system.

But the 2025 State of the Union address also addressed another aspect of the war and state of war (even psychological) that Europe is currently experiencing. Von der Leyen also spoke about the war in the Middle East, announcing new and disruptive measures in the traditional context of relations between Israel and the EU: sanctions for violent Israeli settlers and extremist ministers in the current Israeli government, as well as the suspension of the association agreement between the EU and Israel – in addition to clearly reaffirming the European foreign policy line for the Middle East: the “old” solution of “two states” living in peace. Whether this is possible or even conceivable now and in the near future is another question. However, in terms of political affirmation and in terms of a consistent European position, it is already unequivocal. The President of the Commission recalled that the drama of the hostages violently kidnapped by Hamas has been going on for more than 700 days, as well as that there is no possibility whatsoever of that terrorist group existing, either now or in the future.

In fact, the 2025 State of the Union address touched on all the issues that concern Europeans – to varying degrees. It was both a review and an announcement of measures that must be implemented urgently, whatever the cost. Hence von der Leyen’s question: can Europe “stomach” and find the will/unity to act as it should? In addition to common and effective defence, with the announcement of a new programme to finance Ukraine’s military effort (called “Qualitative Military Edge”), von der Leyen also addressed the urgent need to strengthen the single market and revitalise the social market economy, as well as the need to ensure social support to mitigate the human costs generated by the digital and ecological transitions.

These transitions and the advancement of artificial intelligence and robotisation will inevitably lead to a restructuring of some areas of work. Work itself – at least some traditional forms of work – will tend to see a significant drop in remuneration. These jobs will tend to disappear, leading to a significant increase in unemployment. In general, we will see a decrease in our purchasing power. That is why von der Leyen chose to highlight the social problem of housing.

Furthermore, the speech prioritised the need for genuine industrial reform, as well as the urgency of making the EU’s energy supply autonomous and rationalised. And, inevitably, the need to strengthen European competitiveness, innovation and science, in line with the “Draghi Report”. In fact, the latest Eurobarometers show that, in general, European citizens view the economy and its growth with concern. That is why reducing bureaucracy must be a goal. By way of illustration, in terms of the movement of goods, the bureaucracy inherent in the trans-European movement of products generates costs equivalent to 45% of the customs duties that have been abolished!

The State of the Union address was lengthy (around 80 minutes) and, as mentioned, listed the problems/challenges currently facing the Union. However, if we want to identify a fundamental and cross-cutting core to the measures outlined by Ursula von der Leyen, we can refer to the objective (which is a necessity) for the EU to achieve strategic autonomy.

The EU cannot freely choose its path if it is constrained by technological dependencies, reliance on agricultural and food supplies, dependence on energy purchased from third parties – and, above all, if it is dependent on the goodwill of the United States to ensure European defence and interests. Strategic autonomy is linked to the ability to repel threats to its democratic way of life and the functioning of the rule of law (Union of law), as well as the ability to achieve a level of wealth creation sufficient to ensure the ‘European way of life’.  Therefore – and in summary – the following emerges clearly and harshly (realism) from the speech:

The urgent need to build effective European security and defence, in the hands of Europeans.

The need (“conditio sine qua non”) for greater unity – in other words, deeper integration, freeing the EU (in certain decision-making areas, starting with security and defence) from the shackles of the “unanimity rule” among all Member States.

The need to build a European environment conducive to more innovation, more risk-taking and more wealth creation.

As these objectives were set out and considered in the speech, one of two things will happen: either Europeans will achieve them, or it will be impossible for them to aspire to the “strategic autonomy” that will ensure their respectability and influence vis-à-vis third parties on the international stage, as well as the maintenance of freedom of decision-making and the “European way of life” internally.

Returning to the (tough) question posed by von der Leyen: does the EU have the “stomach” (i.e., the ability to change course) and courage (especially to decisively deepen European integration) to achieve these goals?

More than concrete common policies and tasks aimed at providing the necessary conditions for the Union and, consequently, the Member States to follow the paths outlined by von der Leyen, European citizens will have to confront, above all, a new culture and a new vision of what the EU is (will be) in a geopolitical world that is different from the one we have been building in Europe since the Second World War. The 2025 State of the Union address also has this meaning: it clearly marks the end of an era. At the same time, it reminds us that the future of the EU depends on European citizens’ demand for greater integration. Only if, to paraphrase the President of the Commission, they have the stomach for it.

[1] The State of the Union address was established in Lisbon (with the Treaty of Lisbon) and was delivered for the first time by the President of the Commission, José Manuel Barroso, in 2010. In it, the President of the Commission, before the European Parliament, takes stock of the Commission’s actions over the past year, while also presenting, in general terms, the actions proposed and/or planned for the following year (or for the near future, in terms of Commission action). It is delivered in September before the plenary session of the European Parliament. It is inspired by the State of the Union address in the United States. George Washington delivered the first of these American speeches on 8 January 1790 in New York. In the United States, the speech is delivered before Congress.

[2] See https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_25_2053.

Picture credit: by aleksandre lomadze on pexels.com.